Pop!Tech 2005
, essayist and former financial trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb discusses these "black swans" and their effect on the task of forecasting.
The complexity of the world increases each day, and our inability to forecast events increases as well. "Black swans", unforeseen and unforeseeable events, are impossible to predict but can drastically change results.
These essentially random factors cannot be accounted for, so how can we successfully forecast; how can we account for the unaccountable? Should we just stop forecasting altogether? Not according to Nassim Taleb; he details the pitfalls we encounter while trying to predict the future and a partial solution to the problem.
Peter Durand created this large scale illustration during, Taleb's talk at the
What Do We Know
session at Pop!Tech. The other speaker in this session was
Robert Trivers
. The question and answer period can be heard at the end of
Robert Trivers' talk
.